USD/INR Price News: RBI likely to hike rates in April, prop up Indian rupee – Reuters poll

A majority of the economists surveyed by Reuters said that they expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise repo rate second time this year to 4.50%, lifting the sentiment around the Indian rupee.

Additional findings

“RBI to hike repo rate by 25 bps at April meeting, said 17 of 32 economists.”

“Among the remaining 15, 13 were nearly split between June and August. While only one economist said it would come as early this month, the other said October of this year.”

About half of economists responding to an additional question, 15 of 31, said combating high inflation would steer its moves.

“Another 12, or 39% of respondents, said playing catch-up with the Fed. The rest said the RBI would tighten policy to prop up the rupee.”

“Inflation is expected to remain below the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% until at least 2024, according to the poll, but trend above the medium-term target of 4%.”

“Asked if the RBI was behind the curve with its monetary policy strategy, 19 of 29 said it was not, while the rest said it was.”

Market reaction

Meanwhile, USD/INR is rebounding from near the 74.60 region, currently trading at 74.73, up 0.11% so far. The spot is tracking the bounce in the US dollar amid a mixed market mood and the NFP beat.

The trading activity remains limited in the cross, as India’s bond markets are closed in observance of a public holiday in the state of Maharashtra on Monday to mourn the death of Bollywood singer Lata Mangeshkar.

The RBI has rescheduled its monetary policy committee meeting by a day to Feb. 8-10, it said in a statement on Sunday.