WTI choppy in $91.00-$92.00 area as traders weigh US/Iran talks, geopolitics, supply disruptions

• WTI has erased most of an earlier session dip under $91.00 but has been choppy in $91.00-$92.00 ranges
• Some attributed earlier session profit-taking to positive signs in US/Iran nuclear talks. 
• Traders are also mulling developments regarding geopolitical, near-term supply concerns and ongoing strong demand.

WTI was hit by profit-taking in early European trade, dipping at one point underneath the $91.00s. However, trade has since been choppier in both directions, with WTI prices more recently swinging between the $91.00-$92.00 area. At current levels around $91.50, front-month WTI futures trade with losses of about 50 cents on the day and remain only a few bucks below recent seven-year highs above $93.00, as the market mood for the most part remains bullish. 

Market commentators had cited positive signs on the US/Iran nuclear negotiations front as one trigger for profit-taking earlier in the day; the US restored sanction waivers to Iran that will allow international nuclear cooperation projects. Although the waivers hardly do anything to help the Iranian economy, market commentators said it was a sign of goodwill from the US that showed the country is intent on finding a deal.

Iranian crude oil exports, hobbled by strict US sanctions, currently stand at about 700K barrels per day (BPD) versus pre-US sanction levels of well over 2M BPD. If the US and Iran can agree on a deal to return to the 2015 nuclear pact, this jump in oil exports could help ease upward pressure on crude oil markets in the near term. However, analysts at Fujitomi Securities cautioned that “investors expect more twists and turns in the U.S.-Iranian talks and no agreement to be reached anytime soon.”

WTI’s impressive intra-day recovery speaks to the ongoing bullishness of the mood prevailing in crude oil markets. As the US continues to warn that a Russian military incursion into Ukraine could be imminent, the amount of geopolitical risk premia priced into global oil markets remains high. Oil markets will focus on a meeting in Moscow between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin later in the day, with no progress towards dialing down tensions expected.

In the meantime, recent cold weather in the US has hampered near-term output, with Reuters reporting that two major refineries with a combined more than 800K BPD in output were knocked offline. That contributes to the narrative of near-term tightness in global oil markets, just as the Saudis were reported (by Bloomberg) to have raised official oil selling prices for Asian, North American and European customers. Many analysts will remain comfortable in the calls for WTI to hit $100.