USD/CAD edges higher above 1.2700 as US T-bond yields rise and oil prices slide

• The USD/CAD pares Monday’s losses as WTI plunges below $90.00.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a new high at 1.97%.
• USD/CAD Technical Outlook: A daily close above the 50-DMA would expose the YTD high at 1.2813.

In the New York session, the USD/CAD trim Monday’s losses and reclaims the 1.2700 figure as the Canadian dollar weakens, as oil prices fall, a headwind for the Loonie. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2702.

Falling oil prices weigh on the CAD

On Tuesday’s, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, falls more than 2%, as it moves beneath $90.00 per barrel. Alongside oil factors, the Canadian Trade Balance for December printed a deficit of C$0.14 billion when expectations were of a surplus of C$2.5 billion, hurt the prospects of the Loonie. Additionally, US T-bond yields skyrocketing in the session, led by the 10-year benchmark note reaching a daily high at 1.97%, boosted the greenback.

Fundamentally speaking, the narrative of the central banks’ worldwide tightening conditions keeps markets trendless. Money markets futures expectations of the Federal Reserve, analysts estimate five hikes to the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) by the end of 2022. 

In the meantime, USD/CAD traders get ready for Thursday’s US inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is expected at 7.3% while excluding volatile items like energy and food called Core CPI, which is foreseen at 5.5%.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD is upward biased but faces resistance at the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2708. The pair consolidated around the 1.2650-1.2760 area, amid the lack of catalyst as market participants assess economic conditions.

However, once USD bulls reclaimed 1.2700, that would open the door for a test of the 50-DMA. A breach of the latter would expose the February 4 daily high at 1.2786. An upward break would send the USD/CAD higher towards the January 6 high at 1.2813.