USD/IDR Price Analysis: Rupiah eases from $14,330 support, eyes on Bank Indonesia Rate

• USD/IDR snaps three-day downtrend, stays pressured around weekly low.
• BI is expected to keep monetary policy, benchmark rate unchanged.
• Convergence of 200-DMA, seven-week-old support line restricts short-term downside.
• MACD teases bears, clear trading above $14,450 becomes necessary for bull’s conviction.

USD/IDR struggles to extend previous three-day downtrend around the weekly bottom as the pair traders await monetary policy decision from the Bank Indonesia (BI) during early Thursday morning in Europe. That said, BI is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%.

In addition to the BI concerns, the market’s anxiety ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, expected 7.3% YoY versus 7.0% prior, also challenges the USD/IDR pair’s latest moves.

Read: US Treasury yields dwindle, S&P 500 Futures ignore Wall Street gains amid inflation anxiety

Technically, a convergence of the 200-DMA and an upward sloping trend line from late December restrict the immediate downside of USD/IDR around $14,330.

However, the MACD teases bears and can result in the pair’s further declines towards the initial 2022 lows near $14,270.

It should be observed that the USD/IDR seller’s dominance past $14,270 could highlight the December 2021 bottom of $14,140.

Alternatively, recovery moves may initially aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of December 2021 downside, around $14,385.

Though, USD/IDR bulls remain cautious until witnessing a decisive break above the $14,450 hurdle.

To sum up, bears keep reins ahead of the key catalysts, namely Bank Indonesia Rate and US inflation readings.

USD/IDR: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected