USD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles at 115.80 as market mood dampen, slides to 115.40s

• Failure of USD/JPY buyers to print a daily close above 115.60 exacerbated a downward move towards 115.40s.
• USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Neutral-upward biased, but in the short-term downward as geopolitical headlines dominated market mood.

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY edges lower as the North American session progresses, as market sentiment fluctuates between risk-on/off. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.48.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

During the overnight session, for North American traders, the USD/JPY reached a daily high of 115.80. However, as risk-aversion increased, courtesy by US Secretary of State Blinken remarks saying that they continue to see critical Russian units moving towards the border and not away, tilted market players’ mood.

The USD/JPY is upward biased, as depicted by the daily moving averages (DMAs) located well below the spot price. Tuesday’s failure to achieve a daily close above the January 28 daily high at 115.68 exacerbated a downward move, as shown by Wednesday’s price action, which tilted the USD/JPY as downward biased in the near term.

That said, the USD/JPY first support would be February 14 daily low at 115.00. A sustained break would expose the 50-DMA at 114.70, followed by the February 2 low at 114.14 and then the 100-DMA at 114.11.

Upwards, the USD/JPY first resistance would be 116.00. Breach of the latter would expose the YTD high at 116.35, followed by a challenge of a 24-month-old downslope trendline around 117.00. A clear break of that ceiling level would pave the way towards January 2017 swing high at 118.61.