AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Retreats from a 4-month-old resistance trendline, double top forming at 83.00

• The AUD/JPY advances so far in the week, some 0.30%.
• Risk-aversion in the financial markets caused the AUD/JPY retracement from 83.00, as tensions in Ukraine/Russia increased.
• AUD/JPY is neutral biased, but failure at 83.00 seems to form a double-top that would target 80.00.

The AUD/JPY retreats from weekly tops in the North American session, down some 0.59%. At press time, the AUD/JPY is trading at 82.57. Risk-aversion looms the financial markets. Russia/Ukraine tensions remain “high” as diplomats have been unable to reach an agreement in their negotiations.

The AUD/JPY rallied 150 pips in the week, despite a risk-off market mood in the financial markets, led by global equities. However, on Thursday, a headline of the Russia/Ukraine conflict caused a 90-pip drop in the pair in one hour.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Timeframe: Daily chart

The AUD/JPY is neutral biased, though slightly tilted to the upside, by the location of the daily moving averages (DMAs) below the exchange rate, except for the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 82.72. However, the failure of AUD/JPY bulls at 83.00 exposed the pair to downward pressure.

Also, the confluence of the last two cycle highs around 83.00 depicts the formation of a possible “double-top” that will target 80.00, but it would find some hurdles on the way south.

The AUD/JPY first support would be the confluence of the 50 and the 200-DMA at 82.33-36 area. Breach of the latter would expose 82.00, followed by February 14 daily low at 81.55, and the January 28 daily low at 80.36.