WTI stable in $92.00 area as traders weigh escalating Ukraine crisis against prospect of US/Iran nuclear deal

• WTI was flat near $92.00 on Monday as traders weighed escalating Russia/Ukraine/NATO tensions against a possible US/Iran nuclear deal.
• Investors continue to fret that Russia could be about to invade Ukraine as tensions in Donbass continue to rise.
• The Saudi Aramco and Vitol CEOs were bullish on oil demand in recent commentary, helping keep WTI supported above $90.00.

Crude oil prices stabilised on Monday, with front-month WTI futures last trading flat in the $92.00 per barrel area, as traders weigh ongoing escalation in the Russia/Ukraine crisis against the rising likelihood of a new US/Iran nuclear pact. According to the newsflow coming out of Russia, President Vladimir Putin appears to be on the verge of, or at least being strongly pushed towards, recognising the two breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent nations. Fighting across the ceasefire line that separates the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics with Ukraine has continued to escalate in recent days, unnerving investors and supporting oil prices.

As NATO officials continue to warn that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, investors are fretting that Russia and its allied separatists in the East of Ukraine are looking to create a false pretext for military action. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the sanctions Western nations would place on Russia in the event of an invasion, but most agree there would be disruption to global oil supply. That explains why WTI has been able to hold so well above the $90.00 in recent days, despite the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal bringing over 1M barrels per day in exports back onto global markets.

In terms of the latest on the US/Iran front; an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said “significant progress” had been made, following comments from a senior EU official last Friday that a deal was “very, very close”. “A deal would obviously be a bearish development for the market if Iran is able to ramp up exports fairly quickly,” analysts at ING remarked. “However, just how bearish would depend on where we are with Russia-Ukraine by that time, the bank concluded. “If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and UK have warned in recent days,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank said, “Brent futures could spike above $100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached.”.

In that sense, it isn’t too surprising that dips towards $90.00 continue to be bought, especially given the bullish crude oil demand backdrop. The world’s largest oil company Saudi Aramco over the weekend said that that demand is rising, especially in Asia. The company’s boss remarked that “with the global recovery we’re seeing today, there is more demand for products and we see that from different enclaves, especially in Asia”. Meanwhile, the CEO of major oil producer Vitol Group was also bullish, telling Bloomberg TV on Monday that “demand is going to surge in the second half” of the year and likely exceed 100M BPD if travel continues to return to normal. The CEO warned that “eventually we’re going to run out of spare capacity.”