AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Will history repeat itself? If so, much lower levels to come

• AUD/JPY bears are in the runnings for a major breakout. 
• Bears need to break the daily support line in the coming sessions.

AUD/JPY bears have been penetrating fresh ground below 83 the figure, clearing the way for more downside for the days ahead.  the pair is the forex spaces risk barometer and as the Ukraine crisis intensifies, financial markets are being pressured to exit risk and seek out safe havens, such as the yen. 

This renewed conflict and risks in markets over the territory of Ukraine kicked off in November of last year when the first satellite imagery showed a new build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.

It has propelled over the months to the point where a Russian attack on Ukraine soil is expected to already be underway according to Ukraine and the US. AUD/JPY has been created in kind, but given the complexity of the situation, any pullbacks would be expected to be faded. This is not a crisis that will be cleared up at one G& or UN summit before the week is out.

It is a dispute that has lasted since 2013 when President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal for greater integration with the European Union that was backed by Russia but very soon run out of the country by protestors. Since then, a series of events in Russia's attempt to take back the eastern territories brought the relationship between Russia and the West to its lowest point since the Cold War.

This is a crisis that is here to stay, potentially (likely) to worsen into outright conflict before any middle ground might be found diplomatically. Hence, there is little chance of a recovery in AUD/JPY beyond recently printed highs made in recent sessions for the foreseeable future. If anything the path of least resistance is to the downside still, despite the pair having already lows 1.29% in the past twelve hours of trade between the New York open and Asian markets. 

Moreover, in an analysis of recent and similar price action, on February 10 and 11, when UK and US officials spoke of a worrisome breakdown in diplomacy and even prospects of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pair tanked as follows:

As illustrated, the pair fell nearly 3% over the course of two full trading days, or by 244 pips. We may not have seen half of it, literally. However, from a lower time frame perspective, traders will need to account for volatility both ways, with the bears averaging and fading the rallies at critical structures along the way. 

For example, on the daily chart, the price is backing up from the dynamic support line, as illustrated above. But on the hourly chart, the price is currently testing bearish commitments back near 83 the figure in a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 

There could be s test higher into the 83 area as well, with 83.30 eyed as a critical level but the daily trendline support is in focus for the sessions ahead.

We saw similar corrective price action over the 10 and 11 of Feb:

Will history repeat itsself?