Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD grinds higher towards $1,960 on Russia-Ukraine war

• Gold bulls take a breather around 13-month top, prints biggest daily gains in a month.
• Russia attacks Ukraine borders, recently from Belarus, causalities reported.
• US, EU vows to take harsh actions over Moscow’s military moves.
• DXY, oil also rallied on the geopolitical tensions, US Q4 GDP, geopolitics eyed.

Gold (XAU/USD) buyers cheer Russia-linked full-steam risk-off around $1,940, up 1.65% intraday heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the yellow metal stays firmer around a 13-month high marked before a few minutes as the markets rush to risk-safety on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

ABC News recently quoted Ukraine's border services while mentioning that Russian and Belarusian troops are now attacking the northern border from Belarus. There are reports of casualties.

Early Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally announced the beginning of military operations in Ukraine, rejecting the Western sanctions.

Following that, President Joe Biden showed readiness to impose severe sanctions on Russia while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vows to hold Moscow ‘accountable’. The Group of Seven (G7) leaders are going to meet later in the day and may discuss more sanctions as the West firmly supports Ukraine.

Risk appetite sours amid the geopolitical fears and drowns the US 10-year Treasury yields and the stock futures. It should be observed that the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.40% intraday to print the biggest daily jump in a month.

To sum up, gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal can keep directing gold towards further north until the conditions settle. However, recently hawkish Fedspeak may offer a pause to the XAU/USD bulls. Also important to watch is the second reading of the US Q4 GDP, expected 7.0% annualized versus 6.9% prior.

Read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits $1,950 on Russia-Ukraine war, what’s next?

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of a 17-month-old descending trend line joins a sustained run-up beyond June 2021 peak to keep gold buyers hopeful of poking January 2021high near $1,960.

However, the overbought RSI conditions may restrict the metal’s up-moves beyond $1,960, if not then highs marked in November and September 2020, respectively around $1,965 and $1,973, will challenge the gold buyers.

If at all the risk-aversion propels XAU/USD beyond $1,973, the odds of its run-up towards the $2,000 psychological manget can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, pullback moves may initially test June’s high of $1,917, a break of which will direct the quote towards the multi-month-old previous resistance line near $1,909.

Also acting as short-term support is the $1,900 threshold and $1,890 level comprising the 10-DMA and an ascending support line from early February.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: Further upside expected