AUD/USD retreats towards 0.7150 on Russia-Ukraine woes, ignores strong Aussie Retail Sales

• AUD/USD began the week’s trading with a downside gap, fades bounce off intraday low at the latest.
• Australia Retail Sales outlawed market expectations of 0.4% growth in January.
• Risk appetite remains sour as Russia-Ukraine braces for negotiations with nuclear guns in the pocket.
• Qualitative catalysts, US NFP will be crucial, second-tier US data may entertain intraday traders.

AUD/USD remains on the back foot around 0.7180, down 0.72% intraday following the 70-pip gap-down to begin the week’s trading on Monday. The pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the looming fears of major geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia and Ukraine. In doing so, the risk barometer pair ignores firmer macroeconomic data from Australia.

Australia’s Retail Sales rose by 1.8% MoM in January versus 0.4% expected and -4.4% prior. On the same line are the Pacific nation’s figures for TD Securities Inflation for February, 0.5% and 3.5% MoM and YoY versus 0.4% and 2.8% respective priors. Furthermore, Company Gross Operating Profits grew in Q4 to 2.0%, versus expectations of 0.3% growth and 4.0% previous readouts.

Read: Aussie Retail Sales: +1.8% vs +0.4% expected

Even so, the sour sentiment exerts downside pressure on the risk-barometer pair. That said, news concerning Russia-Ukraine geopolitical have been the major challenge to the market’s risk appetite.

The weekend headlines were rather mixed as the West levied harsh sanctions on Moscow but President Vladimir didn’t step back as put the nuclear arsenal on high alert, raising fears of a nuclear war. On the same line are the latest headlines from Belarus that the nation wants to renounce its non-nuclear neutral status.

Additionally weighing on the AUD/USD prices are the latest comments from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seemed to have challenged the market’s cautious optimism. The regional leader recently said to the EU News that the European Union (EU) wants Ukraine in the bloc while also adding, “They’re one of us.”

The risk-off mood, however, has recently been challenged by the headlines conveying the Moscow-Kyiv talks at the Belarus border.

While portraying the mood, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends a three-week uptrend while the US 10-year Treasury yields print six basis points (bps) of a daily downside to 1.92% at the latest. Further, stocks in Asia-Pacific are also in the red whereas the S&P 500 Futures pare drop nearly 2.0% at the latest.

Looking forward, headlines concerning the Russia-Ukraine talks will be in focus while US trade numbers for January and Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February may offer additional directions to the AUD/USD prices. It’s worth noting that the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be crucial this week as traders slow down on their hopes of a 0.50% rate hike in March.

Read: The week ahead: US non-farm payrolls, Bank of Canada, ITV, Darktrace, Aviva results

Technical analysis

Although 21-DMA guards the pair’s immediate downside around 0.7160, AUD/USD bulls remain unconvinced until the quote stays below the previous support line from late January, around 0.7190 by the press time. Also challenging the AUD/USD buyers is the 100-DMA level surrounding 0.7240.