NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls probe the 200-DMA at 77.89 despite a risk-off market mood Ukraine – Russia war

• The NZD/JPY is up so far by 1.67% in the week, notwithstanding a risk-off market mood.
• US equity markets depict a mixed market mood, while the FX space favored safe-haven peers, except for the NZD.
• NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls are probing the 200-DMA that, once cleared, could open the door for a rally towards 78.83 is on the cards.

The NZD/JPY began the week on the right foot, despite gapping down, during Monday’s Asian session, as Ukraine – Russian tensions escalated over the weekend. Western countries imposed harsh sanctions on Russia. The EU, US, UK, and Canada were the ones that increased the level of sanction, including the ban of Russia of the SWIFT system, bounding Russian financial maneuvering, while freezing assets of Russian government ministers and oligarchs linked to the Russian President. The NZD/JPY is trading at 77.87 at press time.

The US equity markets reflected a mixed market mood, with most of the indexes recording losses, except for the Nasdaq Composite, which rose 0.34%. Asian equity futures have carried on New York’s session mood, while in the FX complex, the CHF, and the JPY, got boosted by their safe-haven status, except for the NZD.

NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The NZD/JPY seesawed between the February 24 daily low at 76.62 and the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 77.89. On its way up, the cross-currency pair broke above the 50-DMA at 77.32. Furthermore, the NZD/JPY Monday’s price action printed a significant bullish candle, showing that NZD bulls aggressively bought the pair as fundamental drivers, like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) chance of hiking 50 basis points in the next monetary policy meetings, loom.

Therefore, the NZD/JPY is neutral biased, but the fundamental analysis indicates that it should appreciate in the near-medium term. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that market sentiment swings would influence the pair.

The NZD/JPY first resistance would be the 200-DMA at 77.89. A decisive break would ignite amove towards the 100-DMA at 78.33, which once cleared would expose the January 13 daily high at 78.83.