WTI seesaws around $95.00 as risks from Russia-Ukraine battle OPEC’s oil output view

• WTI edges higher after rising the most in 12 days, bulls keep reins amid supply crunch fears.
• Russia bombards civilian buildings, peace talks ended without any key results.
• OPEC+ is up for increasing oil production by 400K bpd during Wednesday’s meet, US-Iran deal is close as well.
• API data, OPEC JTC update and Russia-Ukraine headlines will entertain traders.

WTI crude oil prices remain sidelined around $95.00 during Tuesday’s Asian session, after posting the biggest daily gains in two weeks.

In doing so, the black gold portrays the oil traders’ indecision ahead of the output verdict by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+. Also important are the headlines covering geopolitical risks emanating from Ukraine.

Recently, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine came and go without any core results, as expected. The diplomats assured further talks during this week but Moscow isn’t ready to step back as Russian troops bombard civilian buildings in Kyiv. On the other hand, Ukraine President Zelenskyy was quoted by Reuters’ reporter Phil Stewart to consider a no-fly zone for Russian missiles, planes and helicopters. The same would push the US to jump into the battle, as signaled earlier by the White House (WH). However, the WH press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday ruled out the idea of using US troops to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of the eastern European country.

Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) mentioned that the US and other major oil-consuming nations are considering releasing 70 million barrels of oil from their emergency stockpiles as crude oil prices surge. Also challenging the oil bulls is the nearness of the US-Iran deal on denuclearization. Recently, Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Said Khatibzadeh, mentioned in a tweet that the deal is close, which in turn will allow Iran to overcome Western sanctions on selling oil.

It’s worth noting that the OPEC Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting on Tuesday will pave way for the OPEC+ meeting, starting from Wednesday. “The OPEC technical committee will today discuss the supply agreement ahead of the ministerial meeting on Wednesday. It’s likely to keep its planned 400kb/d increase in output,” said analysts with ANZ ahead of the event.

Other than the geopolitics and OPEC+ decision, China and the US PMIs for February will also be important for short-term WTI crude oil prices traders.

Technical analysis

An upward sloping trend channel from late December, recently between $99.25 and $90.40, keeps WTI crude oil buyers hopeful.