USD/RUB looks volatile above 104.00, focus on Russia-Ukraine talks

• USD/RUB trades in the middle of the range around 104.00.
• Russia and Ukraine should resume talks later in the day.
• Putin-Macron call leaves scarce hope for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

The Russian currency remains highly volatile and takes USD/RUB to the middle of the daily range in the 104.00 region on Thursday.

USD/RUB looks to Belarus

USD/RUB resumes the upside following Wednesday’s pullback, although the bullish attempt seems to have met decent resistance in the low-111.00s so far on Thursday.

The ruble stays under scrutiny as the Russian invasion of Ukraine remains under way, although it has been severely hurt following West sanctions on Moscow and the Bank of Russia (CBR) along with the inability of major Russian lenders to keep using the SWIFT system.

It is worth recalling that FX interventions by the CBR in combination with an emergency raise of the policy rate to 20.00% prevented the depreciation of the ruble from spiraling in past sessions, although the threaten of further and harder sanctions by Western powers and the impact on the Russian economy do not bode well for the currency for the time being.

Later in the session, all the attention is expected to be in Belarus for another round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials.

USD/RUB levels to watch

So far, the pair is up 1.69% at 104.22 and faces the next hurdle at 122.25 (all-time high Mar.2). On the downside, a breach of 90.00 (monthly high Feb.24) would aim for 78.08 (55-day SMA) and finally 74.48 (200-day SMA).