AUD/USD cracks the 200-DMA eyeing 0.7350 as Russia-Ukraine hold talks

• The AUD/USD extends its gains in the week, up some 2.71%.
• The market sentiment is mixed, portrayed by some global equity indexes are fluctuating.
• In the FX complex, the market mood is constantly swinging between risk-off/on.
• AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Daily close above the 200-DMA would expose higher prices.

AUD/USD climbs for the third day in the week, threatening to break above a 10-month-old downslope trendline, and so-far leaves the 200-DMA at 0.7324 below the spot price, early as Wall Street’s open. At 0.7333, the AUD/USD shows some resilience of risk-sensitive currencies, despite that European and US equities reflect a mixed market mood.

European equity indices record losses, while US equity indices opened on the right foot. In the FX space, rusk-sensitive peers advance, contrarily to safe-haven ones. The greenback extends gains, with the US Dollar Index up 0.27%, sitting at 97.620, while US Treasury yields rise.

In geopolitical themes, Russia-Ukraine talks resumed as reported by the Tass news agency earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said that talks with Ukraine in Belarus could yield results, while Lavrlo said that Putin and French President Macron held discussions in a phone call. A French official reported that Russia’s Putin told Macron that if Ukraine neutralization and disarmament can’t be reached diplomatically, he would extend Russia’s “special military operations.”

Australian and US economic data

During the Asian session, the Australian economic docket featured data for January, led by Australian building Approvals, which contracted more than estimations. At the same time, the Trade Balance printed a surplus of 12.9 B vs. 9.1 B estimated. Furthermore, Exports expanded 8%, more than 1% in December, and Imports contracted 2%.

Across the pond, the US economic docket featured US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on February 26, which came at 215K, lower than the 225K estimated, while US Markit Services PMI for February came at 56.5, fell short a tenth than estimations. Late in the session, the US ISM Services Index for the same period declined to 56.5, worse than estimations, while Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders fulfilled expectations.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is neutral-upward biased. Indeed a daily close above the 200-DMA would expose 0.7400, and the AUD/USD would shift to upward bias, further cemented by positive China’s economic outlook for 2022.

However, on its way towards 0.7400 and higher, AUD/USD bulls would need a break above November 16 high at 0.7368. Breach of the latter would expose the aforementioned 0.7400 mark, followed by September 3 day high at 0.7478 and then 0.7500.

AUD/USD’s failure at the 200-DMA could trigger a leg down, towards 0.7300, followed by the 100-DMA at 0.7234.