NZD/USD records a YTD high at 0.6871 as NZD bulls cling to the 200-DMA ahead of the weekend

• The NZD/USD pair records a new YTD high and is gaining in the week some 1.75%.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February crushed expectations as unemployment ticks lower.
• NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral-upwards as NZD bulls take a breather and prepare an assault to the 200-DMA.

The New Zealand dollar records the second-biggest gain of the year, at press time rising 1.04% during the North American session. Factors like high commodity prices amid the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside the Russian army seizing the largest nuclear plant in Russia, triggered a rally in the commodity complex. At 0.6859, the NZD/USD does not reflect the market mood globally.

Before Wall Street’s opened, data-wise, the US economic docket featured the Nonfarm Payrolls report for February. The US economy created 678K new jobs, more than the 400K foreseen by analysts, while the January print at 481K trail’s February one. The unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, a tad lower than estimations.

Then, Fed speaking resumed before the Fed’s blackout as the March 15-16 meeting looms. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that he favors increases of 25 bps in each of the meetings and added that jobs numbers have been “quite good” for some time.

Russia-Ukraine Update

During the Asian session, a fire was reported at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is the largest amid an attack by Russian troops. Initially, the Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba confirmed the news and warned that an explosion would be ten times larger than Chernobyl. Late, the Ukraine emergency state service reported that the fire broke outside the perimeter and emphasized that the safety of the nuclear power plant was now secured. Since then, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been seized by Russian military forces, according to the regional authority.

Week ahead economic data

Data-wise, the docket would feature medium-high data. The New Zealand economic docket, on March 10, will reveal the Business NZ PMI for February. Across the pond, the US economic docket will unveil the Trade Balance, JOLTs Job Openings, Inflation, and  Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The NZD/USD, Friday’s rally, broke the 100-day moving average (DMA) located at and if the pair achieves a daily close above it, a move towards the 200-DMA is on the cards. If that scenario plays out, the NZD/USD first resistance would be January 13 daily high at 0.6890. Breach of the latter would expose the 0.6900 mark, followed by the 200-DMA at 0.6930.