AUD/USD renews four-month high above 0.7400 amid inflation, Ukraine fears

• AUD/USD takes the bids to refresh multi-day top, up for the fourth consecutive day.
• Geopolitical tensions fuel price pressure, which in turn helps commodities and Antipodeans.
• Fears of further escalation of Russian military invasion of Ukraine recently weighed on the sentiment.
• RBA’s Lowe, US CPI are the key data/events of the week, risk catalysts keep driver’s seat.

AUD/USD bulls keep reins at the highest levels since November 2021, despite recently making rounds to 0.7440 of late, as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine jitters propel commodity prices during Monday’s Asian session.

Read: Breaking: Gold surges and breaches $2,000/oz

In doing so, the risk-barometer pair seems to lose its identity while rising amid sour sentiment and ignoring firmer US fundamentals that propel the King dollar.

Starting with the Ukraine headlines, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently said, “House is "exploring" legislation to ban the import of Russian oil.” Earlier in the day, UK Defense Chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin believed, per The Times, “Russia could ‘turn up the violence’ with ‘more indiscriminate killing and more indiscriminate violence’ in response to resistance.”

Additionally, comments from Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida who said, “China and Russia are increasing their military collaboration,” per Reuters, joined the news of the further invasion of Moscow towards Kyiv to weigh on the sentiment and propel the DXY.

On Friday, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 678K, well above the median forecast of a 400K figure and upwardly revised 484K prior. On the same line, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8% versus 4.0% previous readings and 3.9% expected. Following the data release, Chicago Fed President and FOMC member Charles Evans mentioned, per Reuters, “The US central bank is on track to raising rates this year, though it may be ‘more than I think is essential to do so at every policy-setting meeting.”

Elsewhere, Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements for February rose past -0.3% prior readings to 8.4% during February and offered additional support to the AUD/USD bulls.

That said, S&P 500 Futures drop 1.60% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields fall five basis points (bps) to 1.67% to portray the heavy risk-off mood. Additionally portraying the mood are the red prints of Nikkei 225 and ASX 200, losing 3.4% and 1.6% by the press time in that order.

Looking forward, comments from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February may entertain AUD/USD bulls during the week. However, nothing more important than geopolitical headlines.

Technical analysis

Successful trading beyond the 200-DMA, around 0.7320 by the press time, directs AUD/USD buyers towards October 2021 peak surrounding 0.7560.