USD/RUB bulls struggle around 136.00 ahead of Russia-Ukraine peace talks

• USD/RUB fades the previous day’s recovery moves but prints three-week uptrend.
• Ukraine shows readiness to compromise but Moscow doesn’t want to concede anything.
• A ceasefire may trigger notable south-run while disappointment won’t hesitate to refresh all-time high.
• US CPI, ECB are also important but nothing more than talks in Turkey.

USD/RUB portrays the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of the key negotiations in Ankara. That said, the Russian ruble (RUB) pair seesaws around 136.00 during Thursday’s Asian session, following a notable rebound the previous day.

The quote’s latest inaction could be linked to the fears concerning a deadlock over the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Underpinning the cautious mood are the latest comments from Moscow and the White House. While the Russian office refrained from conceding anything, the Biden administration argued with Moscow over the usage of chemical or biological weapons.

Previously, Ukraine’s readiness to compromise, if Russia does the same, joined retreat from the NATO plans and the start of the human corridor to raise the hopes of a solution to the stand-off.

It’s worth noting that the West favors Kyiv and keeps the hard stand against Moscow ahead of the key talks. “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, in a phone call on Wednesday, discussed additional security and humanitarian support for Ukraine after Russia's invasion, the State Department said in a statement,” said Reuters. The statement adds, per Reuters, “Blinken and Kuleba also discussed Russia's ‘unconscionable attacks harming population centers’.”

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields retreat while the S&P 500 Futures also fail to track Wall Street gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 snaps a four-day losing streak to rebound from the lowest levels since November 2020, up 3.5% around 25,560 by the press time. Additionally, WTI crude oil drops around 2.0% to $105.50 by the press time whereas gold trims another 1.0% to $1,971, after nearly losing $90.00 the previous day.

Moving on, USD/RUB traders will pay close attention to the Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey for a clear direction amid hopes of a positive outcome. Should that happen, the pair may witness further downside while an otherwise outcome won’t hesitate to refresh the record high. Also important will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, likely rising to 7.9% from 7.5% prior, as well as the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Technical analysis

USD/RUB recovery from 10-DMA, around 117.45 by the press time, directs the quote towards Monday’s peak, also the all-time high, around 155.00.