US oil on the verge of a break below $100bbls

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is on the backfoot.
• Bears are moving in on new supply hopes.

 US oil is meeting resistance on the hourly time frame and trades some 01.6% lower at $100.66 at the time of writing. Oil prices are falling as investors weigh positive comments from ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian and Ukrainian officials gave their most upbeat assessments on Sunday of progress in their talks to end the conflict, with some delegates saying draft agreements could be reached within days. The news has sent oil prices to their lowest levels in two weeks on the prospects of supply.

Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities said that the hostilities in the Middle East are further raising concerns as a geopolitical hotspot that could potentially see the conflict expand beyond Ukraine's borders.

''For the time being, the set-up in crude oil was ripe for a consolidation, but energy traders have also focused on signs from the UAE suggesting the Gulf could be willing to increase output, despite the nation's energy minister quickly tempering the message.''

''Nonetheless,''the analysts said, ''this has raised the prospect of a backroom deal between the Gulf nations and the West, opening the door to substantial relief from the shock in Ukraine. While this, an increase in US shale production, alongside an Iran nuclear deal and the potential easing of sanctions on Venezuela could help ease the burden over a 12-month time horizon, it would still rid the world of most of its remaining spare capacity. In this sense, elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East would create acute vulnerabilities for the energy complex, suggesting the right tail remains fat.''