USD/CHF pokes 0.9400 to renew 11-month high amid Ukraine-linked cautious optimism

• USD/CHF grinds higher to renew multi-day top amid sluggish markets.
• Fears over Ukraine-Russia war eases amid signs of peace ahead of May.
• China’s covid woes, hopes of faster monetary policy tightening test risk-on mood.
• Second-tier Swiss data, US PPI may entertain traders but risk catalysts are important for fresh impulse.

USD/CHF extends a four-day uptrend towards poking April 2021 peak ahead of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the quote rises to the 0.9400 mark, up 0.13% intraday by the press time.

The risk barometer pair initially cheered hints from Ukraine that the Moscow-Kyiv tussles will be over by May. The cautious optimism gained support from the restart of the peace talks, after Monday’s abrupt halt, as well as comments from US Senator Marco Rubio who said, “Russia does not have the morale, manpower to take Kyiv at present,” suggesting a sooner end to the geopolitical crisis.

Furthermore, the European Union (EU) regulators’ rejection to ban bank payouts over Ukraine also underpins the market’s mildly positive sentiment, which in turn propels USD/CHF prices.

It’s worth noting that the multi-month high US Treasury yields are an extra factor in favor of the USD/CHF bulls.

However, worsening virus conditions in China and Russia’s readiness to achieve their goals in Ukraine in full suggests darker days are ahead.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the fresh high since June 2019 before the latest retreat to 2.14% whereas the 5-year coupon, on the other hand, refreshed 34-month high ahead of stepping back to 2.098% at the latest. It’s worth noting that the stock futures in the US and Europe also print mild gains at the latest.

Looking forward, Swiss Producer and Import Prices for February, expected to ease to 5.1% from 5.4% prior, will precede the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the said month, expected to refresh multi-day high with 10.0% YoY figures, versus 9.7% prior, to give immediate directions. Though, headlines concerning Russia, China and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will be more important for fresh impetus.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of the 0.9370-75 key hurdle, comprising highs marked during early March 2021 and November the last year, keeps USD/CHF buyers directed towards the 2021 peak of 0.9472.