IMF: Russia-Ukraine war “major blow” to world but impact on Asia limited

The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to deliver "a major blow" to the global economy, although its impact on the Asian region is likely to be limited, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a post uploaded on its website on Tuesday.

Key takeaways

“The conflict is a major blow to the global economy that will hurt growth and raise prices.”

“Expect to lower the Fund’s previous forecast for 4.4 percent global economic growth in 2022.”

In Asia and the Pacific, specifically, spillovers from Russia's invasion of Ukraine are "likely limited given the lack of close economic ties, but slower growth in Europe and the global economy will take a heavy toll on major exporters.”

“In Asia, the impact will be felt mostly by petroleum importers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, India and some Pacific Islands.”

“Countries with direct trade, tourism, and financial exposures would feel mounting pressure.”

“A greater risk of unrest in some regions, from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to the Caucasus and Central Asia.”

“The war may fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order should energy trade shift, supply chains reconfigure, payment networks fragment, and countries rethink reserve currency holdings.”

Market reaction

• Ukraine president says positions of Ukraine, Russia at talks sound more realistic
• USD/RUB Price Analysis: Ruble retreats from 20-DMA but bulls stay hopeful