When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US Monthly Retail Sales Overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for February, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The headline sales are estimated to have risen by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% during the reported month as against the 3.8% growth recorded in January. Excluding autos, core retail sales probably climbed by 0.9% in February, down from the 3.3% increase reported in the previous month.

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the consumer spending data, the risk-on impulse in the markets weighed heavily on the safe-haven US dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair back above the key 1.1000 psychological mark. Weaker-than-anticipated US data would be enough to exert additional pressure on the greenback and lift the pair. Conversely, an upbeat report is more likely to be overshadowed by the latest optimism over a possible diplomatic solution to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That said, any immediate market reaction is more likely to remain limited as investors might prefer to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting, scheduled to be announced later during the US session.

According to Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet: “The technical picture doesn't provide any clear directional clues in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart moves sideways near 50 and the pair is trading near the 20-period and the 50-period SMAs.”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Resistances are located 1.1000 (psychological level, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend), 1.1040 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1070/1.1080 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).”

“On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.0930 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0850 (static level),” Eren added further.

Key Notes

 •  US Retail Sales Preview: Relentless shopper may provide dollar-selling opportunity ahead of the Fed

 •  EUR/USD Forecast: Euro to stabilize above 1.1000 on a dovish Fed hike

 •  EUR/USD set to suffer a substantial drop to the 2020 low at 1.0635 – Credit Suisse

About US Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).