Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebound fades near $1,930 as Ukraine-Russia peace talks dwindle

• Gold prices snapped three-day downtrend to bounce off 13-day low before the bulls took a breather.
• Russia-Ukraine talks continue even if a 15-point peace plan challenges the progress.
• Fed’s rate-hike could only stop the gold buyers but not beat them.
• Bull cross on MACD, clear bounce off 200-SMA and weekly resistance breakout keep gold buyers hopeful.

Gold (XAU/USD) pauses the recovery moves from a fortnight low, marked the previous day, as it takes rounds to $1,925-30 during Thursday’s initial Asian session. The yellow metal’s latest inaction could be linked to the market’s doubts over the Ukraine- Russia peace, as well as a reassessment of Fed’s hawkish rate-hike that couldn’t entertain the yellow metal traders much.

The talks of a diplomatic compromise between Russia and Ukraine initially triggered the risk-on mood during Wednesday’s North American session before news suggesting a deadlock on the proposed neutrality of Kyiv. Also, Russia is ordered by the International Court of Justice in The Hague to suspend the invasion of Ukraine, which in turn may raise barriers for successful talks. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hoped for the allies' assistance on control of air traffic for Russian military planes.

Elsewhere, a softer COVID-19 daily count from China tames virus woes from the dragon nation and adds to the upbeat sentiment. On the same line were headlines suggesting the government’s readiness to propel economic growth, by China Vice Premier Liu He.

It should, however, be noted that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike and expectations of seven more such rate lifts during 2022, coupled with upwardly revised inflation forecast, challenge the risk-on mood.

Read: Fed Quick Analysis: Dovish hike? Powell to push the dollar even higher with a big bazooka

Amid these plays, Wall Street marked another positive day whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields refreshed the highest levels in two years before retreating to 2.172% at the latest.

Moving on, gold traders will pay major attention to the headlines from China and Ukraine for fresh directions.

Technical analysis

Gold prices hold onto the previous day’s rebound from the 200-SMA, as well as break of the one-week-old descending trend line, to keep buyers hopeful.

Also favoring the bullish bias is the MACD line that teases a bull cross over the signal line and the RSI that recovers from oversold territory.

That said, gold buyers presently eye 100-SMA level near $1,950 before the previous support line from early February, close to $1,962 by the press time, will challenge the XAU/USD upside.

In a case where gold rises past $1,962, a three-week-old horizontal area surrounding $1,970-75 will act as the last defense for bulls.

On the contrary, the previous resistance line from March 08 and the 200-SMA, around $1,912 and $1,897 in that order, will challenge the short-term downside of gold.

Should the yellow metal drop below $1,897, the odds of witnessing further downside towards the mid-February high near $1,880 can’t be ruled out.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further recovery expected