NZD/USD moves back above 0.6900 mark, bulls flirt with the key 200-DMA resistance

• NZD/USD gained traction for the fourth straight day and climbed back closer to the monthly peak.
• Chinese stimulus hopes turned out to be a key factor that benefitted the antipodean currency, the kiwi.
• A softer risk tone, modest USD strength warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.

The NZD/USD pair climbed further beyond the 0.6900 mark during the early European session and was last seen trading just a few pips below the monthly peak.

The pair gained strong follow-through traction for the fourth successive day on Friday and has now rallied nearly 200 pips from the monthly low, around the 0.6730-0.6725 area touched earlier this week. Hopes that China will deliver additional stimulus to complement its promise to support the economy and stabilize the financial markets benefitted antipodean currencies, including the kiwi.

This, to a larger extent, helped offset a generally softer tone around the equity markets. The lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations kept a lid on the recent optimistic move in the markets. This, along with the Fed's hawkish outlook, drew some haven flows towards the US dollar, though did little to hinder the NZD/USD pair's near one-week-old bullish trajectory.

It is worth recalling that the Fed kick-started the policy tightening cycle on Wednesday and indicated that it might raise rates at all the six remaining meetings in 2022 to combat high inflation. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank could start shrinking its near $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as the next meeting in May. This, in turn, underpinned the greenback.

Even from a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair was seen flirting with a technically significant 200-day SMA, around the 0.6910 region. This further makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before traders start positioning for a further near-term appreciating move. Nevertheless, the major remains on track to register its highest weekly close since mid-November 2020.

Thursday's US economic docket features the release of Existing Home Sales. The focus, however, will remain on fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga. Apart from this, a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping would drive the broader market risk sentiment. This, in turn, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch