AUD/USD faces resistance around 0.7420s on a risk-off sentiment

• The Australian dollar falls 0.12% in the North American session.
• Russia-Ukraine talks stall as fighting in Mariupol increases.
• AUD/USD Price Forecast: The bias remains upwards, confirmed by an upbreak of a falling-wedge and the 200-DMA.

The AUD/USD begins the week on the wrong foot as it falls in the North American session amid a risk-off market mood, due to the extension of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as peace talks stall. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7409.

Russia – Ukraine tussles update

The Russia – Ukraine conflict extends and aims to continue for the fourth week. Ukraine President Zelensky said he is ready to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Puttin, but Turkish officials said Putin is not ready. Furthermore, Moscow said the progress of talks with Ukraine is not as big as it should be, backpedaling on what they said to the Financial Times last week.

A burst of negative market mood impacted the market when the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the US ambassador on Monday and handed over a note of protest over “unacceptable” comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin by US President Joe Biden.

Fed speaking would increase in the week

Aside from this, in the last week, the US central bank hiked rates for the first time in three years while also signaling that it is ready to raise rates six more times through 2022, per the dot-plot shown. The markets have started to price in expectations, while Fed speaking dominates the US economic docket.

On Monday, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he predicts six hikes In 2022 and expressed that he would be “comfortable” if the Fed needs to hike aggressively. Bostic added that inflation would return to 2% by 2024, while it would hit 4.1% by the year-end.

Late in the early Tuesday Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe would cross the wires.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD bias is upwards, after breaking a falling-wedge on March 17, but it faces solid resistance at 0.7441 on March 7 daily high. Furthermore, the same day, the AUD/USD left the 200-day moving average (DMA) below the spot price, two bullish signals on the AUD, alongside some procyclical currencies bid, with commodity-linked peers soaring due to higher commodity prices.

That said, the AUD/USD first resistance would be 0.7441. Breach of the latter would expose September 3 daily high at 0.7478, followed by October 28, 2021, daily high at 0.7555.

Worth noting; the 50-DMA is about to roll over the 100-DMA.