Fred's Bullard: US economy will continue to grow above trend this year and next

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who on Friday called for a dramatic increase in the Fed's overnight lending rate to more than 3% this year, is crossing the wires with the following comments dripping through:

• Russia's war will mean less globalization, more fragmentation around the world.
• Direct macroeconomic effects on u.s. economy from Russia's invasion is not that large.
• Could easily be that Europe is pulled into recession as a result of war.
• We've seen these kinds of oil prices before, didn't cause a recession in US.
• US economy will continue to grow above trend this year and next, labor markets will continue to improve further.
• It's not as if we are a little bit over on the inflation target; we are way over.
• All indications are that inflation will go up in the spring.
• High inflation has necessitated 'all of us' to think about how fast we need to move.
• We will have to move faster than what we are used to.
• We have to think bigger.

Bullard's messaging remains as hawkish as ever. After Powell’s comments Monday, Bullards said yesterday that the Fed needs to move aggressively to curb inflation and that he thinks 50 bp moves would “definitely be in the mix.”  

''The plural "50 bp moves" is clearly not a base case, yet'', as analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted, ''but Bullard is certainly pushing hard for it,'' as well a balance sheet runoff to start ASAP.