Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD appears ‘sell the bounce’, key US data eyed – Confluence Detector

• Gold price resumes decline, as risk-aversion revives the US dollar’s haven demand.
• Gold traders closely watch the action in US yields, Ukraine news ahead of US data.
• Four scenarios for big moves in precious metals markets.

Despite Wednesday’s rebound, gold price remains exposed to downside risks amid hopes for diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis while Russia continues its hostilities on the ground. Meanwhile, the price action in the US Treasury yields will continue to have a significant impact on the non-yielding gold price, in the face of recession risks and soaring inflation. Gold price now awaits the US PCE inflation and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for fresh insights on the Fed’s next interest rates move. XAU/USD is set to end the quarter as well as the month with a gain of 5.6% and 1% respectively.

Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Three reasons for a downside surprise, triggering dollar buy opportunity

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is challenging bids at $1,924, which is the convergence of the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and pivot point one-week S1.

The next bearish target is envisioned at $1,920, the pivot point one-day S1. Further south, the bears will test the bullish commitments at the previous day’s low of $1,916.

Should the selling pressure intensify, a fresh drop towards the previous week’s low of $1,911 will be on the cards.

Alternatively, gold bulls need to crack a dense cluster of healthy resistance levels around $1,932, where the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and SMA200 four-hour intersect.

Acceptance above the latter will call for a retest of the previous high four-hour and SMA10 one-day at $1,935.

The previous day’s high of $1,939 will be next on the bulls’ radars, as they remain poised for the additional upside towards the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at $1,945.

Here is how it looks on the tool

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.