US: March retail sales reports still reveals the resilience of consumer spending – Wells Fargo

Data released on Thursday, showed retail sales increased 0.5% in March; February’s numbers were revised higher. The March retail data still suggest real goods spending is tracking to rise at around a 2.5% annualized pace in the first quarter, according to analysts at Wells Fargo. 

Key Quotes: 

“Predictably gas stations saw the largest percentage increase from February, posting an 8.9% increase on the month. The fact that gas prices rose a lot more than that suggests consumers are combining trips or taking advantage of work-from-home flexibility if they are able to. Supply chain constraints still weigh on sales activity for auto dealers, where sales fell 1.9% in March. E-commerce posted the largest monthly decline with a 6.4% drop.”

“Adjusting these nominal sales estimates for the recent run up in prices has become all the more important as consumers battle the highest inflation in 40 years. Once adjusting for higher prices, we estimate real retail sales declined 1.6% in March.”

“Inflation is not going away, but it will likely stop getting worse and that means less of a headwind for spending. The March retail data still suggest real goods spending is tracking to rise at around a 2.5% annualized pace in the first quarter.”