AUD/USD bears run into a monthly demand area, eyes on critical data ahead

• Aussie CPI will be the key domestic event for the week ahead.
• AUD/USD is testing a monthly 61.8% ratio and support, but is firmly bearish. 

AUD/USD is poised for further downside for the week ahead, but that will depend on a key area of support giving out and traders will be looking for a catalyst in this week's inflation data from Australia. 

The price of the Aussie has been under pressure for the last few weeks and last week was no exception, ending down 1.74% on Friday for a bearish weekly close. However, there are prospects of the greenback continuing to draw support from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments last Thursday that underpinned a half a percentage point tightening at next month's policy meeting.

Additionally, the French election result is market-friendly and a rise in the euro and equity prices could be reflected through AUD/USD for the open if only giving temporary relief from the downside bias. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of economic indicators, including US Gross Domestic Product and the Aussie Consumer Price Index. 

Analysts at TD Securities explained that the Reserve Bank of Australia expects trimmed mean inflation to print above 3%, same as the market and our forecast.

''Higher dwelling prices and transport costs are the usual culprits for the pickup in inflation but a jump in food prices likely adds upside risks. However, unless trimmed mean inflation prints above 4% y/y, we see a low chance of RBA hiking in May and stick to our 15bps hike in June.''

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD is reaching a monthly support area that has a confluence with the 61.8% ratio. This could prove to be a strong demand area:

The price broke the daily trendline and the imbalance of bids and offers could result in a correction for the forth coming days.