When is the Canadian monthly jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian employment details overview

Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly jobs report for April later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is anticipated to have added 55K jobs during the reported month, down from the 72.5K rise reported in March. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower from 5.3% to 5.2% in April.

Analysts at NBF offered a brief preview of the report and explained: “Job creation should have continued apace during the month, reflecting a strong economy. That said, the number of jobs added may have come down after two extremely solid months. Our call is for 25K gain. Such an improvement of the labour market would leave the unemployment rate unchanged, assuming the participation rate remained at 65.4%.”

How could the data affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the key release, rising crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and acted as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair amid a modest US dollar pullback from a two-decade higher. The data is likely to be overshadowed by the simultaneous release of the US NFP report, though any significant divergence from the expected readings might still infuse some volatility around the pair.

From current levels, any meaningful upside is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 1.2900 mark. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for additional gains and lift spot prices to December 2021 high, around the 1.2960-1.2965 zone, en-route the key 1.3000 psychological mark.

On the flip side, the 1.2800 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.2780-1.2775 region. The downtick could be seen as a buying opportunity around the 1.2750-1.2745 area. This, in turn, should help limit the downside near the 1.2715-1.2710 zone, or the weekly low touched on Thursday, which is closely followed by the 1.2700 round-figure mark.

Key Notes

  •   Canada Employment Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, battling a labour crunch

  •   USD/CAD Forecast: Bulls await descending trend-line breakout, US/Canadian jobs data in focus

  •   USD/CAD: Canadian Employment should prove broadly supportive of the loonie – ING

About the Employment Change

The employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.