NZD/USD: Still scope for a drop to 0.6245 – UOB

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, NZD/USD could still attempt a move to 0.6245 in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘the risk still appears to be tilted to the downside’. We added, ‘the support 0.6245 is still likely out of reach’. Our expectations did not materialize as NZD traded in choppy manner between 0.6283 and 0.6379. The underlying tone still appears to be soft and we see scope for NZD to weaken today. That said, a break of 0.6245 is unlikely. Resistance is at 0.6315 followed by 0.6340.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative view in NZD since last Friday (06 May, spot at 0.6430). As NZD declined, in our latest narrative from Tuesday (10 May, spot at 0.6310), we highlighted that the downside risk is still intact and NZD could weaken to 0.6245. Yesterday (11 May), NZD spiked to a high of 0.6379 before dropping quickly to end the day little changed at 0.6292 (-0.02%). While downward momentum beginning to slow, we still see chance for NZD to decline to 0.6245. On the upside, a breach of 0.6385 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) would indicate that NZD is not ready to break 0.6245. Looking ahead, the next support below 0.6245 is at 0.6200.”