USD/RUB stays pressed around two-year low under 65.00 ahead of US/Russia statistics

• USD/RUB prints three-day downtrend as sellers reverse the corrective pullback from 27-month low.
• Russia warns Finland over joining NATO, Ukraine cheers Moscow’s failure to cross Siverskyi Donets river.
• Hopes of easing geopolitical tensions are thin but Fedspeak, US PPI favored USD pullback, firmer oil prices strengthen RUB.
• Russia CPI, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index eyed for fresh impulse.

USD/RUB remains pressured towards the lowest levels since February 2020, marked the previous day, as DXY pullback joins cautious optimism and firmer oil prices to favor the pair bears heading into Friday’s European session.

US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from a 20-year high, flashed on Thursday, as market sentiment improves amid a light calendar and absence of major news during the sluggish Asian session.

That said, the greenback gauge drops 0.08% to 104.65 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the DXY weakness, or retreat to term it the best, could be linked to the US PPI’s matching of the 0.5% MoM market consensus for April, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s reiteration of 50 bps rate hikes in the next two meetings. On the same line were comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly who mentioned, “Is it 50, is it 25, is it 75? Those are things that I’ll deliberate with my colleagues, but my own starting point is we don’t want to go so quickly or so abruptly that we surprise Americans”.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil rises 1.0% to $107.80 during a three-day uptrend, eyeing the weekly top of late. The black gold’s latest run-up could be linked to the cautious optimism in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as fears of a European oil embargo over Russian energy imports.

It should be noted that Russia’s latest retreat from the Siverskyi Donets river in Donbas joins China’s hopes of overcoming covid in the short-term and seems to underpin the risk-on mood. On the contrary, Moscow’s warning to Finland, over its plan to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), coupled with Western sanctions, challenges optimists.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields portray a corrective pullback after refreshing a two-week low the previous day, around 2.89% by the press time, whereas the S&P 500 Futures print rises 1.0% while licking its wound near one-year low.

Looking forward, Russia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, prior 7.6% MoM, will precede the preliminary readings of US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for May, expected 64 versus 65.2 prior, to direct short-term USD/RUB moves. Though, major attention will be given to headlines concerning coronavirus, geopolitics and Fedspeak.

Technical analysis

A seven-week-old descending trend line, around 67.60 by the press time, keeps directing USD/RUB prices towards early 2020 lows surrounding 61.00.