EUR/USD stays defensive around 1.0450 ahead of EU/US data, Fed’s Powell

• EUR/USD bounces off intraday low as bulls await fresh the key catalysts during three-day uptrend.
• US dollar stays pressured despite firmer yields, risk-on mood weigh on greenback.
• EC forecasts downgraded GDP estimations, Fed’s Powell expected to repeat 50 bps rate hike concerns.
• US Retail Sales for April, risk catalysts are also important for fresh impulse.

EUR/USD picks up bids from intraday low during a three-day uptrend, mildly bid around 1.0440 during early Tuesday morning in Europe.

The major currency pair cheers softer US dollar, as well as risk-on mood to extend the previous rebound from a five-year low. However, cautious sentiment ahead of the data/events tests the EUR/USD buyers of late.

The recovery in the market sentiment could be linked to the covid headlines from China, as well as recently downbeat US data and Fedspeak.

Shanghai conveyed plans to end the covid-linked lockdown after the third consecutive day of zero coronavirus cases outside the quarantine area. It’s worth noting that the latest comments from China State Planner, stating the increasing downside pressure on the economy, per Reuters, challenge the market’s optimism.

On the other hand, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for May, expected +15.5 versus -11.6 actual, as well as comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Fed’s Williams backed Chairman Jerome Powell’s 50 basis points (bps) rate hike idea by highlighting inflation as the main issue.

It should be noted that European Commission’s (EC) downbeat Eurozone growth forecasts for 2022, from 4.0% to 2.7%, seem to also weigh on the EUR/USD prices ahead of the preliminary readings of the Eurozone Q1 GDP, expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% QoQ and 5.0% YoY.

Also, the US Retail Sales for April bears an upbeat forecast, expected at 0.7% versus 0.5% prior, which in turn test EUR/USD bulls.

However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly backed his bias for 50 basis points (bps) of rate hike in the next two meetings, which in turn keeps the pair buyers hopeful. Even so, a slight change in the tone may witness a major market reaction as the markets have barely forgotten the road to the risk-off mood.

In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, headlines concerning the Russia-Ukraine crisis and covid will be important for near-term EUR/USD directions too.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD rebound could be linked to the firmer MACD signals and a three-day-long rising support line, near 1.0410 at the latest.

However, a convergence of the 50-SMA, descending trend line from April 21 and a two-week-long horizontal region challenge the EUR/USD upside moves around 1.0480-90.

Alternatively, pullback moves can test the immediate support line, near 1.0410, before directing EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0350-40 support area including multiple lows marked since 2017.