USD/RUB stays depressed near 63.50 even as EU, US braces for Russia’s hardships

• USD/RUB takes offers to refresh intraday low, stays inside weekly trading range near two-year bottom.
• EU prepares plan to gradually overcome energy dependence, US eyes to block Russian debt payment.
• Risk-aversion, hawkish Fed joins softer oil prices to restrict downside.
• Russia’s economic resilience keeps the sellers hopeful during the second month of the war with Ukraine.

USD/RUB renews intraday low at 63.25 as bears keep reins inside a weekly trading range ahead of Wednesday’s European session.

In doing so, the Russian ruble (RUB) refrains to respect the US dollar strength while also ignoring headlines suggesting further hardships for Moscow, due to the Western dislike of its invasion of Ukraine.

That said, Reuters came out with the news earlier in Asia suggesting the European Commission’s 210 billion euro plan for how Europe can end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. On the same line were the latest headlines saying, “The US is considering blocking Russia’s ability to pay its US bondholders by allowing a key waiver to expire next week,” per Reuters.

It’s worth noting that the hawkish Fedspeak, recently from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, joins to market’s risk-off mood to keep the US dollar afloat after a three-day downtrend. Also likely to challenge the USD/RUB bears are the recently heavy oil prices, Russia’s key export item. That said, WTI crude oil drops back below $111.00, down 0.50% intraday near $110.50 at the latest.

Even so, the RUB remains on the front foot amid chatters of the nation’s economic resilience despite the latest sanctions and geopolitical tussles with Kyiv.

Moving on, headlines concerning the Western sanctions on Russia and Moscow’s military action in Kyiv may determine near-term USD/RUB moves. Also important will be the US Housing Starts and Building Permits for April, as well as the Fedspeak.

Technical analysis

USD/RUB remains sidelined between 62.80 and 66.50 with repeated failures to cross the 100-HMA, around 66.00 by the press time, adding strength to the bearish bias.