NZD/USD stabilises near 0.6450 pre-RBNZ as markets digest weak NZ Retail Sales, soft US Service PMI data

• NZD/USD has pared some intra-day losses after weak US Service PMI data, but is still lower in the 0.6450 area.
• NZD was weighed by softer than expected New Zealand Retail Sales growth figures, which come ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting.

Softer than expected Q1 New Zealand Retail Sales growth figures have contributed to a weakening of the kiwi on Tuesday, with NZD/USD eroding much of the gains it made on Monday as a result. Worries about global growth as scores of major institutions revised down their growth estimates for the Chinese economy and more US companies warned about a worsening economic environment also weighed. The pair is currently trading near the 0.6450 level, down about 0.3% on the day, after reaching as high as 0.6490 at the start of the week. Just released US Services PMI data for May was worse than expected and has helped the kiwi pair some of its intra-day losses versus the buck, with NZD/USD having been as low as the 0.6420s earlier in the day.

Back to the New Zealand data; real Retail Sales growth came in at -0.5% QoQ in the first quarter of this year, below expectations for a solid pace of increase. Analysts at Westpac said the data “signals downside risk to our forecasts for a 0.6% rise in March quarter GDP”. “The rise in consumer prices is squeezing households' spending power,” they added, “while the rise in mortgage rates and related debt servicing costs will add to the pressures on discretionary incomes”.

Still, the RBNZ is nonetheless expected to press ahead with a 50 bps rate hike during the upcoming Wednesday Asia Pacific session. Kiwi traders will be closely scrutinising the bank’s guidance for future rate hikes and NZD could be choppy as a result. Ahead of the upcoming RBNZ announcement, NZD/USD traders will also have to keep an eye on commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell from 1620GMT, where he will likely reiterate the bank’s stance that it is ready to lift interest rates above neutral without hesitation if needed to tame inflation.