BOJ set to maintain ultra-low rates, sound warning over weak yen

While a modest, technical tweak to its yield cap or guidance on the future policy path cannot be ruled out, the BOJ is seen sustaining its massive monetary support for now to ensure the economy is fully out of the doldrums.

At the two-day policy meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain its -0.1% target for short-term rates and its pledge to guide the 10-year yield around 0%.

The central bank may also deepen its resolve to defend the 0.25% upper limit by targetting a wider range of debt maturities for its unlimited fixed-rate bond-buying operation, which currently covers only 10-year bonds, some analysts said.

The BOJ is caught in a dilemma. With Japan’s inflation well below that of Western economies, its focus is to support the stil-weak economy with low rates. But the dovish policy has triggered sharp yen falls, hurting an economy heavily reliant on fuel and raw material imports.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly stressed the need to keep interest rates ultra-loose, and that the central bank won’t target exchange-rates in guiding policy.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appeared to defend Kuroda’s stance. In a news conference on Wednesday, Kishida said the BOJ will likely take into account various factors besides yen moves, such as the impact on small firms’ borrowing costs, in setting policy.

Kuroda is likely to warn against a weak yen at his post-meeting briefing, such as by highlighting the damage the currency’s sharp falls could inflict on the economy, analysts said.