AUD/USD drops towards 0.6900 amid offbeat mood ahead of US/Aussie data

• AUD/USD extends the previous day’s pullback from weekly top, stays pressured around intraday low.
• Market sentiment dwindles amid fears of recession, lack of major catalysts challenge momentum traders.
• Australia’s business sentiment gauge dropped for the second month, China rejects expectations of heavy stimulus.
• RBA rate hike expectations ease ahead of Wednesday’s Aussie Retail Sales, US CB Consumer Confidence could direct intraday moves.

AUD/USD remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day, down 0.25% around 0.6920 during the mid-Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies downbeat data at home, disappointment from China and receding hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) aggression ahead of the key US and Australia statistics.

Australia’s Roy Morgan Business Confidence index fell to 97.3 for June. In doing so, the sentiment gauge drops to the lowest levels since September 2020 while also posting the second monthly fall.

Moving on, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Vice Head mentioned that China will not resort to flood-like stimulus. The policymaker also said, “China faces new challenges in stabilizing jobs, prices due to covid, Ukraine crisis.”

Elsewhere, global rating agency S&P cuts Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast to to 3.6% (from 4% previously), 2023 projection is 2.8% (2.7% prior forecast). The rating giant also expects further interest rate hikes to 1.75% this year, 2.5% in 2023, 2.75% in 2024 while a cut to 2.5% in 2025.

On a different page, the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events joins a light calendar in Asia to weigh on sentiment amid impending fears of recession. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a two-week high flashed the previous day, down 0.15% intraday around 3,897 at the latest. In doing so, the key gauge of the US equity futures prints the first daily loss in four. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days.

Looking forward, US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will precede Wednesday’s ECB Forum as an important catalyst to determine short-term market moves.

At home, Australia’s Retail Sales for May, up for publishing on Wednesday, is expected to ease to 0.4% versus 0.9% previous growth. It’s worth noting that the futures market hints at the slower pace of the RBA’s rate hike of late. That said, the benchmark rates are seen at 3.25% by the end of the year, compared with almost 4.0% a couple of weeks ago.

Technical analysis

Unless successfully crossing the weekly resistance line near 0.6945, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to challenge the six-week-old support line near 0.6885.