When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

June month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may ease to 3.8% from 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas Employment Change could rise to 25K from 60.6K. Further, the Participation Rate may remain intact at 66.7%.

Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently hawkish bias, coupled with the trouble in China and mixed data at home, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial as the AUD/USD trades near the two-year low.

Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.6740, reversing the two-day rebound from the yearly low, as market sentiment sours amid fears of higher Fed rates and recession. The pair’s latest weakness could also be linked to the downbeat prices of iron ore and fears surrounding China’s economic growth, considering its covid conditions.

That said, hopes of upbeat Aussie jobs report to propel the AUD/USD are fewer amid the broad pessimism surrounding economic slowdown and 100 bps Fed rate. However, strong prints of the Employment Change and softer Unemployment Rate won’t go unnoticed.

Considering this, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik says

A better-than-anticipated report could push the Aussie higher, but sellers will likely return after the dust settles. The immediate resistance level is 0.6802, Wednesday’s daily high, followed by the 0.6870 price zone. 

Technically, AUD/USD needs to cross the monthly resistance line, around 0.6870 by the press time to regain the buyer’s attention. a downward sloping trend line from late January, at 0.6738 by the press time, followed by the latest low near 0.6710, could limit the short-term downside of the pair. It’s worth noting that RSI holds lower grounds while MACD teases bull cross.

Key Notes

Australian Employment Preview: Could it save the aussie? 

AUD/USD retreats towards 0.6700 ahead of Australia Employment data

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).