USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls trying to defend 50-DMA/50% Fibo. confluence support

• USD/CAD bounced off the 1.2855-1.2850 confluence support, though lacked follow-through.
• Resurgent USD demand turned out to be a key factor that acted as a tailwind for the major.
• An uptick in oil prices offered some support to the loonie and capped any meaningful upside.

The USD/CAD pair once again managed to defend and attract some buying near the 1.2855-1.2850 confluence support on the last day of the week. The uptick, however, lacked any follow-through and ran out of steam ahead of the 1.2900 round-figure mark.

The US dollar was back in demand and shot to a multi-day high, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that acted as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, an uptick in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and capped spot prices.

From a technical perspective, the aforementioned confluence support comprises the 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.2517-1.3223 rally. This is followed by the 1.2830-1.2820 area and the 1.2800-1.2790 region, or the 61.8% Fibo. level.

The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the USD/CAD pair vulnerable. The downward trajectory could then accelerate towards the 1.2700 mark en-route the 1.2675-1.2665 horizontal support.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the 1.2900 mark is likely to confront resistance near the overnight swing high, around the 1.2935 region, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.2960 area. Some follow-through buying would suggest that the recent corrective pullback from the YTD peak has run its course and pave the way for additional gains. The USD/CAD pair might then aim to surpass the 1.3000 psychological mark and retest the 1.3075-1.3085 supply zone, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibo. level.

USD/CAD daily chart

Key levels to watch