USD/TRY Price Analysis: Rising wedge, RSI divergence tease bears below 18.00

• USD/TRY grinds higher inside a bearish chart pattern.
• RSI fails to back higher low on prices, suggests bull’s exhaustion.
• 50-HMA adds strength to the support, buyers can aim for 2021 peak.

USD/TRY rebounds from intraday low as it picks up bids to 17.83 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Turkish lira (TRY) pair approaches the yearly top marked the previous day while staying inside a weekly rising wedge bearish chart formation.

It’s worth noting that the RSI’s (14) inability to match the higher low on prices portrays the bearish divergence on the chart. The same hints at the quote’s further weakness and can favor bears should the quote confirms the rising wedge formation.

However, the 50-HMA adds strength to the 17.78 key support, a break of which could quickly drag USD/TRY to the 200-HMA around 17.50 before the theoretical target surrounding the 17.00 threshold.

In a case where the pair bears keep reins past 17.00, June’s bottom surrounding 16.00 will be in focus.

Alternatively, the yearly high near 17.85 and the stated wedge’s upper line, close to 17.90 at the latest, could restrict the USD/TRY pair’s immediate upside ahead of the 18.00 threshold.

Should USD/TRY remains firmer past 18.00, the odds of its run-up beyond the 2021 peak of 18.36 can’t be ruled out.

USD/TRY: Hourly chart

Trend: Pullback expected