USD/CAD oscillates around 1.5-month low near 1.2800, focus on US PCE inflation

• USD/CAD remains sidelined near multi-day low amid sluggish markets.
• Indecision over US recession, cautious mood ahead of the key data probe momentum traders.
• WTI remains pressured after reversing from one-week high, DXY struggles for clear directions.
• US data, risk catalysts will be important for fresh impulse.

USD/CAD picks up bids to 1.2810 as it licks the wounds near a six-week low during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the softer oil prices, as well as the US dollar’s pause from further downside, amid a sluggish session.

WTI crude oil extends the previous day’s pullback from a one-week high towards $96.00, down 0.26% intraday near $96.30 by the press time. The black gold’s latest weakness could be linked to the update from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively known as OPEC+. On Thursday, Reuters cited eight sources familiar with the matter to hint at no major change in the OPEC+ output.

US Dollar Index (DXY) defends 106.00 level while staying near the lowest level since July 05. The greenback gauge dropped during the last two consecutive days amid receding fears of the Fed’s aggression.

Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s teasing of “neutral rates”, USD/CAD traders should have traced the Flash readings of the US Q2 GDP, which marked the “technical recession” by declining for the second consecutive time, to decline further. That said, the first estimations of the US Q2 GDP printed -0.9% Annualized figure versus 0.5% expected and -1.6% prior. Further, the US Initial Jobless Claims also rose more than expected by 253K, with 256K during the week ended on July 22.

Elsewhere, US policymakers, including Fed’s Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, tried to shrug off the “technical recession” after the US Q2 GDP dropped for the second consecutive time and teased the concept. The same probes the central bankers pushing for more rate hikes to tame inflation. Furthermore, talks between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese Counterpart Xi Jinping also went mostly okay and exerted downside pressure on the greenback’s safe-haven demand.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures rise half a percent to seesaws near the highest levels since early June while the US 10-year Treasury yields flirt with the lowest levels in three months.

Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.5% MoM for July versus 0.3% prior, will be important for the USD/CAD traders. Also crucial will be the headlines surrounding oil prices and economic slowdown.

Technical analysis

The USD/CAD pair’s first daily closing below the 100-day EMA since early June joins the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, as well as bearish MACD signals, to hint at the quote’s further declines. However, a clear downside break of the descending support line from June 14, at 1.2790 by the press time, appears necessary for the bears.