AUD/USD bounces off two-week low, lacks follow-through amid risk-off/sustained USD buying

• AUD/USD reverses an intraday dip to a two-week low, though lacks follow-through.
• Hawkish Fed expectations, recession fears underpin the USD and should cap gains.
• Acceptance below the 50 DMA supports prospects for a further depreciating move.

The AUD/USD pair stages a modest bounce from a two-week low touched earlier this Friday and moves back above the 0.6900 mark during the early European session. The pair is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, though any meaningful upside seems elusive and the attempted recovery runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Growing worries about a global economic downturn continue exerting downward pressure on commodity prices, which, along with a softer risk tone, might act as a headwind for the risk-sensitive aussie. Apart from this, the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, bolstered by hawkish Fed expectations, should further contribute to keeping a lid on the AUD/USD pair.

The recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials and the incoming positive economic data reaffirm market speculations that the US central bank would stick to its policy tightening path. This, in turn, pushes the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond back closer to the 3.0% threshold and remains supportive of the ongoing USD positive move to a one-month high.

The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, the overnight break below the 50-day SMA could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Hence, any subsequent strength might still be seen as a selling opportunity amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases from the US.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair remains on track to register heavy weekly losses. Bearish traders, however, might wait for some follow-through selling below the monthly low, around the 0.6870 region, before positioning for any further losses.

Technical levels to watch