NZD/USD advances towards 0.6000, focus shifts to Fed policy

• NZD/USD is aiming to recapture 0.6000 amid a decline in consensus for the US growth rate.
• Fed’s interest rates are expected to peak around 4-5% beyond 2023.
• A dovish PBOC’s monetary policy will support the antipodean.

The NZD/USD pair is marching towards the psychological resistance of 0.6000 after a break above the 0.5940-0.5985 range in the early Tokyo session. The asset has entered inside the prior balanced profile in a range of 0.5977-0.6026 after a rebound whose breakdown led to a decent fall. The major is likely to display significant gains ahead as the US dollar index (DXY) has turned lackluster ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The survey from the Financial Times conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business sees Fed interest rates above 4% beyond 2023. The Fed is unlikely to shift its stance to a ‘neutral’ path before the conclusion of 2023 as price pressures will take sufficient time to return to the restoration level. Also, the interest rates will peak around 4-5% and will keep them until they find a slowdown in the inflation rate for several months.

Meanwhile, the DXY is expected to display a vulnerable performance as economists at Goldman Sachs have trimmed the growth forecasts for 2023. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 1.1% as Fed’s tightening path along with the current restrictive policy will prove less room for growth in the scale of economic activities.

On the NZ front, investors have shifted their focus toward the monetary policy meeting of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). To spurt the inflation rate and economic activities, a dovish tone is expected from PBOC’s policymakers. A loose monetary policy will strengthen the antipodean a major trading partner of China.

Also, the Westpac Consumer Survey for the third quarter will be keenly watched, which is seen higher at 87.6 vs. the prior release of 78.7.