AUD/USD surrenders modest recovery gains, hangs just above over a two-year low

• AUD/USD attempts a modest recovery from over a two-year low, though lacks follow-through.
• A sharp USD pullback from a two-decade high turns out to be a key factor lending some support.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, recession fears act as a tailwind for the buck and cap the upside.

The AUD/USD pair recovers nearly 100 pips from its lowest level since May 2020 touched this Thursday, though the momentum stalls near the 0.6670 region. The pair quickly retreats below mid-0.6600s during the early North American session and is currently placed in neutral territory.

A sharp US dollar pullback from a fresh two-decade high turns out to be a key factor that assists the AUD/USD pair to attract some buyers near the 0.6575 region. News that Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market triggers aggressive short-covering around the JPY and prompts traders to take some profits off their USD bullish positions.

That said, a more hawkish stance adopted by the Fed helps limit the USD corrective declines and acts as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. In fact, the Fed signalled more large rate increases at its upcoming policy meetings. This, along with the cautious mood and rising US Treasury bond yields, underpins the safe-haven buck and caps the risk-sensitive aussie.

Investors remain concerned that a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks will lead to a deeper global economic downturn. This, along with headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the risk of a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have been fueling recession fears and denting the global risk sentiment.

The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity. Spot prices remain vulnerable to prolonging over a one-month-old descending trend and test the 0.6500 psychological mark in the near term.

Technical levels to watch