Eurozone HICP Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, inflation rate approaches double digits

Eurostat will release Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for September on Friday, September 31 at 09:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming EU inflation print.

For the eurozone as a whole, headline inflation is expected at 9.7% YoY vs. 9.1% in August and core is expected at 4.7% YoY vs. 4.3% in August. On a monthly basis, the HICP is expected to rise to 1.2% vs. 0.1% booked in August while the core HICP is foreseen at 1% against the previous figure of 0.5%. 

Commerzbank

“In the euroarea, the inflation rate is likely to have jumped from 9.1% in August to 9.9% in September, and in Germany, it may even already be in double digits. Once again, energy and food were the price drivers. But the inflation rate excluding energy, food and luxury goods is also likely to have jumped from 4.3% to 4.6% in the euroarea.”

Nomura

“We see EA flash inflation rising to what we think will be a peak of 9.7% in September.”

TDS

“The end of the subsidies that artificially lowered German inflation in June will provide a substantial boost to German HICP inflation in September. This combined with continued food pressures will likely push aggregate euro area headline inflation close to 10% YoY.”

SocGen

“We think HICP will increase to 9.6% YoY in the September flash, up from 9.1% in August, and we believe this could be the peak in euro area inflation. Even if it isn’t the peak, we don’t think inflation will increase much from this level in 4Q and inflation is almost certain to fall in early 2023 due to the negative base effects in the energy component.”

Deutsche Bank

“We expect the measure to hit a record +9.5%, up from the previous record of +9.1% in August.”