EUR/USD holds recovery gains above 0.9800 amid light trading, ISM eyed

• EUR/USD pauses its rebound amid a renewed USD uptick and cautious mood.
• Treasury yields turn south, limiting the downside in the major.  
• 21 DMA appears a tough nut to crack for EUR bulls amid holiday-thinned markets.

EUR/USD is clinging to recovery gains above 0.9800 so far this Monday, reversing the early dip to near 0.9785 region. The bulls lack follow-through upside bias after staging a decent comeback on Friday.

The US dollar is catching a fresh bid amid a souring market mood, as investors remain worried over aggressive Fed rate hikes, in the facing of growing recessionary fears worldwide. Also, markets look forward to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI releases amid holiday-thinned trading conditions, as China, Australia and Germany observe their respective national holidays on Monday.

Meanwhile, looming Russia-Ukraine tensions and the deepening European energy crisis continue to limit the upside attempts in the main currency pair. Last week, US President Joe Biden declared that a massive leak from the Nord Stream gas pipeline system in the Baltic Sea was an intentional act. 

Although the downside in the pair remains cushioned by the renewed weakness in the US Treasury yields, as risk-off flows persist. The focus now shifts towards the Eurozone and US Manufacturing PMIs and Fedspeak for fresh trading impetus.

Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) Finance and Economy Ministers are set to meet in Luxembourg. The meeting is chaired by Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup. The ministers will discuss the macroeconomic situation in the euro area and seek to set priorities for the Recovery and Resilience Plans.

EUR/USD: Technical outlook

Looking at EUR/USD’s daily chart, sellers keep lurking at higher levels so long as the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 0.9890 is taken out decisively.

Ahead of that, bulls need to seek acceptance above Friday’s high of 0.9853.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading flatlined below the 50.00 level, warranting caution for bulls.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Therefore, failure to sustain the recovery mode will reopen the downside towards the 0.9800 support area.

Further down, Friday’s low of 0.9734 could come into play once again.

EUR/USD: Additional levels to consider