USD/CAD drops from 2-year highs toward 1.3650, trimming last Friday’s gains

• USD/CAD plummets more than 1.20% on Monday as sentiment improves.
• Manufacturing activity in the US slowed its pace but remained growing.
• Canada’s S&P Manufacturing PMI improved but stayed below 50, signs of an ongoing economic slowdown blamed on elevated interest rates.

The USD/CAD dropped from around two-year highs at around 1.3837, plunging 200 pips on Monday, as the US dollar weakened across the board, as sentiment shifted positively due to a U-turn of the UK’s budget. Rumors of a slash in global oil production spurred a jump in oil prices, bolstering the oil-linked loonie. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3649, down by 1.25%.

European and US equities continue to recover after diving toward the YTD lows. After Wall Street opened, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was revealed, showing that activity, even though slowed, remained in expansionary territory, a 50.9, below 52.8 from the previous month. Worth noting that the report showed that New Orders dropped, suggesting that spending is decelerating, while prices paid decreased to 51.7, the lowest reading since June 2020, from 52.5 in August.

On the Canadian side, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September jumped to 49.8, improving compared to the August 48.7 reading. According to the report, new orders decelerated at a faster pace, impacting prices paid by producers. Additionally, high-interest rates and weak economic conditions led clients to refrain from placing orders.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index continues to weaken across the board, with the DXY losing 0.27%, at 111.869, a headwind for the USD/CAD. Also, traders need to be aware of crude oil prices, with WTI increasing by 3.13%, at $82.63 per barrel, a tailwind for the Canadian dollar.

What to watch

The Canadian docket will feature the Bank of Governor speech by Tiff Macklem on Thursday, alongside employment figures on Friday. In the United States, the calendar will reveal Durable Good Orders alongside JOLTs Jobs Openings on Tuesday, ahead of September’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, revealed on Friday.

USD/CAD Key Technical Levels