NFP report unlikely to put pressure on the US dollar – Commerzbank

The question is whether the Federal Reserve would continue to sound so hawkish if the labour market was not as strong any longer. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, Nonfarm Payrolls due out later in the day are unlikely to provide any cause for concern for now.

There are no real alternatives to the dollar

“Today’s data is unlikely to provide any cause for concern for now. The momentum is likely to have eased a little but the labour market is likely to be sufficiently tight for the Fed to stick to its plan of continuing to hike interest rates significantly.”

“If the NFP report disappoints, the reaction of the Fed members would be decisive. If the rhetoric does not change, there is no reason initially to trade USD weaker. In particular, as there are no real alternatives to the dollar at present, as we had previously explained in this publication.”

“September consumer price data is due for publication next week. If there is no improvement on the price front, the Fed is likely to stick to its hawkish communication even if the labour market today were to disappoint. Against this background, USD is likely to remain supported for now.”

See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from nine major banks, employment trend slows down