AUD/USD renews two-year low near 0.6320 as risk-aversion intensifies, Russia, Fed bets eyed

• AUD/USD remains pressured at fresh 30-month low amid risk-off mood.
• Escalating fears from the Russia-Ukraine tension, Sino-American tussles weigh on prices.
• RBA vs. Fed divergence joins downbeat Aussie data to keep bears hopeful.
• US/China CPI, FOMC Minutes will be important for near-term directions.

AUD/USD stands on slippery grounds as it drop to the fresh low since April 2020, around 0.6320 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk-barometer status while leading the G10 currency pairs towards the south.

Recently, the BBC came out with the news suggesting multiple large explosions hit Kyiv, marking it the first tragic event in months. It’s worth noting that the missiles also destroyed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office. The latest escalation in the geopolitical tussles could be linked to the weekend’s explosion that destroyed a part of the bridge in Crimea which is crucial for Russia's war supplies.

Elsewhere, China’s return to the market after a week-long holiday fails to renew the risk appetite. That said, the latest Sino-American tussles over Taiwan and risk-negative headlines from North Korea also weigh on the sentiment, as well as the AUD/USD prices.

Above all, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish rate hike and the intensifying hawkish Fed bets are the key cause of the AUD/USD pair’s downturn. The expectations of the Fed’s aggression strengthened after the US jobs report for September showed that the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose to 265K versus the 250K expected. Also portraying the strength of the US employment conditions, as well as weighing on the market’s mood, was an unexpected fall in the Unemployment Rate to 3.5% compared to forecasts suggesting no change in the 3.7% prior. Following that, the CME’s FedWatch tool signals the 78% chance for the US central bank’s 75 bps rate hike in November.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures dropped for the fourth consecutive day while poking the monthly low near 3,630, down 0.45% intraday at the latest. That said, the US 10- Treasury yields rose for eight consecutive weeks in the last before pausing around 3.90%.

Looking forward, this week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), as well as updates on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s emergency meeting, on Monday, could entertain the pair traders ahead of the US inflation data and the Fed minutes.

Technical analysis

A clear U-turn from the five-month-old previous support line, around 0.6535 by the press time, directs AUD/USD towards the March 2020 high near 0.6215.