AUD/USD renews 2.5-year low near 0.6250 as DXY traces firmer yields amid hawkish Fed bets

• AUD/USD takes offers to refresh the multi-month low, down for the sixth consecutive day.
• Mixed Aussie data, Australian Treasurer fail to trigger corrective bounce as yields underpin DXY.
• Hawkish Fed bets, geopolitical fears join pessimism surrounding China to weigh on prices.
• Fed Minutes, US inflation will be eyed closely as traders are more concerned with the RBA vs. Fed divergence.

AUD/USD remains on slippery grounds for the sixth consecutive day as it approaches the lowest levels since March 2020 during early Tuesday morning in Europe. The Aussie pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the recent pick-up in the US Dollar Index (DXY) while tracking the Treasury yields amid the risk-off mood.

US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.16% intraday gains as it prints a five-day uptrend near 113.40. That said, the US 30-year Treasury yields rise to a fresh high since January 2014 whereas the 10-year counterpart poke the 4.0% threshold. Also portraying the risk aversion is the S&P 500 Futures that drop 0.50% as bears lean towards the monthly low.

Recently, Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers dismissed the odds of a recession while saying, “Not our expectation that the Australian economy will go backward,” per Reuters.

Talking about the Aussie statistics, the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Conditions improved to 25 during September from 18 expected and 20 prior but the Business Confidence gauge matched the downbeat market forecasts of 5 versus 10 previous. Earlier in the day, Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped to -0.9% for October versus 3.9% prior.

It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool signals a 78.4% chance of the Fed’s 75 bps rate hike in November.

In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, the geopolitical, as well as economic, fears amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and the Sino-American tussles also weigh on the AUD/USD prices due to its risk barometer status.

Technical analysis

Unless crossing a three-month-old support-turned-resistance around 0.6310, the AUD/USD pair is vulnerable to testing March 2020 high near 0.6215.