GBP/USD Price Analysis: Intraday bounce from 1.1000 stalls ahead of 100-period SMA on H4

• GBP/USD rebounds from over a one-week low touched on Tuesday amid a modest USD pullback.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets act as a tailwind for the buck and cap gains amid recession fears.
• The technical setup favours bearish traders and warrants caution before confirming a bottom.

The GBP/USD pair finds decent support near the 1.1000 psychological mark and stages a goodish intraday rebound from over a one-week low touched earlier this Tuesday. The positive move allows spot prices to snap a four-day losing streak, though bulls struggle to find acceptance above the 1.1100 round figure.

A modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, along with a slight recovery in the equity markets, prompts some profit-taking around the safe-haven US dollar and offers support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, concerns about the UK government's fiscal plans continue to act as a headwind for the British pound amid looming recession risks. This, in turn, keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the major, at least for the time being.

From a technical perspective, the post-NFP downfall on Friday validated a bearish breakdown through the 1.1200 confluence. The said handle comprised the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the corrective rally from an all-time low, the lower end of a nearly two-week-old ascending channel and the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The latter caps the intraday bounce for the GBP/USD pair and should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders.

A sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.1200 round figure (23.6% Fibo. level). Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark has run its course and pave the way for additional gains. Spot prices might then accelerate the upward trajectory, allowing bulls to aim back to reclaim the 1.1300 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.1045 region, could act as immediate support ahead of the 1.1000 level. A convincing break below could drag the GBP/USD pair towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.0920 area. This is followed by the 1.0900 mark, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch